Cheer up, they said, it could be worse.

The US and China are in a trade war. What are the chances of a rapport or will it get worse?

The chances are it will get worse and a new President is unlikely to improve relations significantly.

Whilst the Russian economy remains smaller than Italy, China has risen to challenge the US as a competing superpower.

Chinese history and social structure leads to fundamentally different cultural norms, despite many senior Chinese having been educated in the west.

China has abandoned the two system approach in Hong Kong. It was this which held out the hope of a similar rapprochement with Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as part of its territory and seems unlikely to give that up. China is also continuing its expansion in the South China Sea and has a superior naval force to impose its will there.

On the trading front China has relationships with more countries that the US does. China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiatives are bringing many countries in trawl.

As a technology powerhouse, China is able to replace any dependence it had on US tech firms for essential technologies. China’s energy needs exceed its current capacity but agreements with Russia should solve that. Similarly, mining interest in Asia, Africa and South America will provide raw materials for continued expansion.

Will the relationship lead to conflict?

Many pundits dismiss comparisons between America and the Soviet Union and cite the situation prior to World War one when despite strong economic ties, Britain and Germany went to war. This could happen between the US and China by accident or as a result of a progressively worsening situation over territorial actions in the pacific.

Even on issues of global warming the two behemoths are divided but here there might be common ground from new leadership in the US. With fierce competition in trade and technology, here’s hoping for some big issue that leads to a meeting of the minds.

Could climate change be the one?